Sean Murphy

Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Friday.

This game sets up perfectly for a high-scoring affair, with ideal hitting conditions on tap in Baltimore. Temperatures will be in the 70s at first pitch with a steady breeze blowing out to left-center, helping carry any well-struck balls and boosting run-scoring potential in what’s already a hitter-friendly park.

On the mound, neither starting pitcher inspires much confidence. Cincinnati sends Andrew Abbott to the hill for just his second start of the season. While the lefty looked serviceable in his debut, his track record suggests he can be erratic, especially against quality lineups like Baltimore's. The Orioles have hit .316 with an .876 OPS in a small sample against Abbott, and their offense is heating up with 15 runs scored across their last two games.

Cade Povich counters for the O’s, and the left-hander is still searching for consistency. Tagged for 24 hits in just 15 innings this season, he’s been far too hittable. That’s not a great recipe against a Reds team that may have just dropped two in Seattle, but still ranks in the top half of the league in weighted on-base average over the last week.

With both teams swinging the bats reasonably well and pitching vulnerabilities on both sides, the conditions are ripe for fireworks in Friday’s series opener.

Take the over. Projected score: Orioles 7, Reds 6.

My selection is on Cleveland over Pittsburgh at 6:40 pm et on Friday.

The Guardians arrive in Pittsburgh looking to bounce back from a pair of losses, and this matchup against the slumping Pirates sets up well for them to do just that. While Cleveland’s offense hasn’t exactly been clicking of late, it still holds a noticeable edge over a Pittsburgh lineup that ranks just 26th in weighted on-base average over the last week.

Thursday’s 1-0 win over the Brewers was a rare offensive highlight for the Pirates, who scratched across the game’s only run on a solo homer by O'Neil Cruz. That lack of consistent production is likely to catch up with them against Guardians starter Luis Ortiz, who continues to show upside and has done a better job of limiting damage than the box scores sometimes indicate.

The Pirates will turn to Carmen Mlodzinski, who has labored through 13 innings this season with a bloated 1.77 WHIP — a clear red flag against a Cleveland team that typically puts the ball in play and doesn’t rely solely on power to manufacture runs.

Look for the Guardians to take advantage of a favorable pitching matchup and outclass Pittsburgh offensively in the series opener.

Take Cleveland. Projected score: Guardians 5, Pirates 3.

Friday MLB Free play. My selection is on the over between St. Louis and New York at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

After a quiet opener in which the Mets came away with a 4-1 win, I’m expecting a shift in tone Friday night with Miles Mikolas and David Peterson set to toe the rubber.

While Mikolas has managed to limit damage in the run column with a 2.61 FIP, his bloated 1.62 WHIP through 13 innings tells a different story — one of constant traffic on the basepaths, which isn’t a great sign heading into a matchup in a hitter-friendly forecast.

On the other side, Peterson remains an inconsistent option in the Mets rotation, and this matchup doesn't do him any favors. St. Louis has feasted on left-handed pitching this season, ranking top-five in baseball in weighted on-base average against southpaws. After being held largely in check Thursday, the Cardinals lineup is in a strong position to bounce back against a pitcher they’re well-equipped to hit.

Layer in favorable weather conditions — including temps near 60 and the wind blowing out to left-center — and the setup is there for both lineups to get rolling after Thursday's subdued effort.

Take the over. Projected score: Cardinals 6, Mets 5.

Southeast Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta over Miami at 7 pm et on Friday.

We successfully backed the Heat in their emotionally charged win in Chicago on Wednesday, but now is the time to fade them. That game closed the book on a triple-revenge spot against the Bulls, and Miami delivered a defensive clinic to earn a trip to this winner-take-all play-in matchup. But with short rest and another road game on tap, this looks like a tough spot against an Atlanta squad that’s shown resilience in the face of adversity.

The Hawks have been effective playing at a slower pace recently, getting off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five games — yet still managing to go 3-2 both straight-up and against the spread in that span. It’s not just the offense that has adjusted well; defensively, Atlanta has been solid, holding five straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals.

This sets up a battle of styles with the Heat, who have hit 44 or more field goals in four of their last five games. But keep in mind that Miami's strong recent showings have come against teams like the Bulls and Raptors — not exactly top-tier competition at this stage.

Revenge is also in play here. The Heat took the last two meetings against Atlanta, but both were in Miami. Back at State Farm Arena, it’s been a different story. The Hawks won both head-to-head matchups at home this season by double digits, and that’s the version of Atlanta I expect to show up in this one.

With a rested roster and some home-court history behind them, I like the Hawks to punch their ticket to the postseason.

Take Atlanta. Projected score: Hawks 111, Heat 104.